According to this recent study , predictions can go wrong when those who make them are crossed by the following biases .
1) They assume the trends will be linear, 2) they assume they know what the responses to any trend will be, and 3) they combine primary facts with their interpretation. Here are some of the most famous and shocking examples.
From Edison to Einstein
- The British physicist and mathematician Lord Kelvin (1824-1907) stated: "There is no future for radio."
- 1956: "Space travel is sheer nonsense." Richard van der Reit Wooley , Astronomer Royal, British government space adviser.
- Since its birth, cinema has been crucified, even by its own inventor, Louis Lumière : "My invention may be enjoyed as a scientific curiosity […] But commercially it is not of the slightest interest."
- 1949: "It seems that we have reached the limits of what is possible to achieve with computer technology, although you have to be careful with such claims; they tend to sound pretty silly five years from now." John von Neumann .
- Talkies fared even worse, according to inventor Thomas Edison : “I think talkies will never succeed. Viewers will never be enthusiastic about the addition of voices. ‘ And Harry Warner of Warner Bros. exclaimed in 1927, "Who the hell wants to hear actors talking!"
- 1932: "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy can ever be obtained. It would mean that the atom would have to be smashed at will." Albert Einstein .
- In 1943 we also found statements of similar significance from none other than IBM President Thomas John Watson : "I think there is a market for about five computers around the world."
- 1912: "The arrival of the wireless age will make war impossible, because it will make war ridiculous." Guglielmo Marconi .
- 1895: "Flying machines heavier than air are impossible." Lord Kelvin , British mathematician and physicist, President of the British Royal Society.
- 1961: "There is virtually no possibility that space communications satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service within the United States." TAM Craven , Commissioner of the FCC.
- 1946: "Television will not be able to sustain any market it captures beyond the first six months. People will soon tire of looking at a plywood box every night." Darryl Zanuck , 20th Century Fox.
- 1903: "The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad." The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advises Henry Ford’s attorney, Horace Rackham , not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.