One third of current world food production may be left outside a climate safe space by the end of the century

One third of current world food production may be outside a climate safe space by the end of the century

According to an Aalto University study published in One Earth, climate change threatens a third of food production .

In the study, the researchers define the concept of safe climate space as those areas where 95% of agricultural production currently takes place, thanks to a combination of three climatic factors: rain, temperature and aridity.

20% of world agricultural production

In total, 20% of world agricultural production and 18% of threatened livestock production are in countries with little capacity to adapt to changes.

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Food production as we know it developed in a fairly stable climate, during a period of slow warming that followed the last ice age.

Changes in rainfall and aridity, as well as a warming climate, especially threaten food production in South and Southeast Asia, as well as in the Sahel region of Africa .

The researchers evaluated how climate change would affect 27 of the most important food crops and seven different types of livestock, which explains the different capacities of societies to adapt to change.

The results show that threats affect countries and continents in different ways; In 52 of the 177 countries studied , all food production would remain in the safe climate space in the future. These include Finland and most other European countries.