As soon as we take a look at the temperatures that the thermometers reach during the rigors of this heatwave, we will agree that, both for temperature and for the sustained time of said temperature, things are not going well at all. In fact, they are going so badly that it has already been assumed that the Paris Agreements to limit the temperatures that will be reached by the end of the century are already unfeasible on a global level .
The 2016 Paris Accords consisted of reaching less than 2 degrees C. at the end of the century is no longer possible, according to Dick Startz , a professor in the Department of Economics at UC Santa Barbara, along with colleagues from the University of Washington and Upstart. Startz contributed to an article published in Nature: Climate Change , which used a combination of statistical, scientific and economic data.
The paper posits a 95 percent probability that global temperatures will rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius, and a less than 1 percent chance that they will not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. As Startz explains :
Rather than focus on expert opinion, we wanted to rely solely on what the data says. This is a high-tech statistical model that analyzes what has happened to per capita production in each country, to the intensity of arbono in each country, and to the population of each country. What we found is that there is a wide range of what could happen, but sadly, the lower end of the range is still pretty bad, and the upper end of the range is catastrophic.
Then? We are doomed? In Startz’s opinion there are only two possible solutions, and both are quite drastic. The first is to raise taxes on pollution, so much so that it discourages producing it. The second would be to find some extraordinary technological innovation that gets us out of the problem. It would not be the first time that the second comes to save humanity. Image | Helena Emery